Housing Trends San Francisco


San Francisco - February 2016

Real Estate Insights

Zephyr Real Estate  

The end of 2015 saw a continued rise in the median sale price of homes in both San Francisco and Marin, but with a small dip and then a leveling off in the first part of 2016. Even before the stock market started trending downward, real estate in the Bay Area entered its usual holiday slowdown, which typically lasts from December 1 until the Super Bowl. With inventory at historical lows, we expect activity and prices to pick up again as we enter the spring market.

For a long view of real estate trends, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is a good source. This index measures the change in the value of residential real estate in 10 U.S. Metropolitan areas, which includes the San Francisco Bay Area. As you can see, in spite of the recession of 2007-2011, San Francisco Bay Area real estate has not only retained its value, but has exceeded the high of 2006. In fact, according to the Case-Shiller Index, real estate values in the Bay area have doubled since 2000. However, it’s important to remember that this particular report is an index related to nine other metropolitan areas. It does not reveal actual home prices.

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Median Sales Price


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Avg. Days on Market


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# Homes Sold


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% List Price Received



Case-Shiller Home Price Index


Mortgage Interest Rates


Median Sales Price


What about interest rates?

Interest rates are also an important factor in the real estate market. When the Fed raised its rates late last year, everyone expected mortgage rates to climb. Instead, they have remained low, hovering between 3.5%-4.00%. Many analysts believe rates could return to historical lows. That’s usually good news for buyers, as qualifying for loans gets much easier. However, falling interest rates can also signal a weakening economy, which could pull buyers out of the market. A strong economy is better for all of us, even if it means interest rates bumping up a point.

There is every reason to believe that the Bay Area real estate market will remain strong. Our population continues to grow with qualified, employable people and there seem to be enough well-paying jobs to absorb them. Though the building boom in San Francisco continues apace, it is not enough to keep up with demand. All that, combined with interest rates that stay right about where they are, indicates that the market will be brisk and prices will continue to rise, though probably at a more reasonable pace.


Months Supply of Inventory


% Original List Price Received


Average Days on Market


# Units Sold


Closer to Home

recent sales citywide


3373 22nd Street


4BR / 3.5BA

Sold at $3,475,000


281 Summit Way


3BR / 2.5BA

Sold at $1,512,381


295-299 14th Avenue


4BR / 3BA

Sold at $1,900,000


3500 19th Street #303


2BR / 2.5BA

Sold at $2,279,000


42 Lakeview Avenue


-BR / -BA

Sold at $870,000


3831-3835 24th Street


-BR / -BA

Sold at $2,600,000


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David Ames - Top Producer 2015
(415) 271-2071
CalBRE # 01265683



Data Sources include: San Francisco Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (SFAR MLS), Bay Area Real Estate Information Services Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS MLS), Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Mortgage Banker’s Association historic mortgage rates. Data from these sources is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Quick stats noted at the top of the newsletter are for Single Family Homes sold during the prior month.



  David Ames 

  Top Producer 



  (415) 271-2071

Comment balloon 1 commentDavid Ames • February 29 2016 01:23PM


Thanks for the great market update on your community. One of the best parts of Active Rain is the local market updates!

Posted by Lise Howe, Assoc. Broker and Attorney Licensed in DC, MD, VA, (Keller Williams Capital Properties) over 2 years ago

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